Because the countdown to the 2024 season gathers tempo, Cyclingnews appears at a number of the key storylines that may outline the approaching 12 months in biking.
Even after Visma’s lack of a key rider in Primož Roglič – the most important switch information of the previous few months, UAE Group Emirates and Visma-Lease a Bike will possible stay the dominant two groups in 2024. Nonetheless, Bora-Hansgrohe, who nabbed Roglič, have a possible infusion of capital from Crimson Bull and are striving to overhaul them, as are Lidl-Trek, who invested closely within the switch market.
The shift of riders throughout groups would not all the time result in a like-for-like change in rankings, however Cyclingnews checked out every rider’s 2023 particular person rating factors and tallied up the highest 20 riders of every of the brand new groups to calculate a pseudo-current rating.
Crunching the numbers would not reveal all, but it surely does give some key factors of debate and prediction for the 2024 WorldTour.
The 2024 workforce rosters are usually not completely full, and there’s a lengthy record of riders nonetheless to announce their groups for the 12 months, however the majority of the groups for the vital gamers have been determined.
Bora-Hansgrohe the massive winners
Of all of the groups within the WorldTour, Bora-Hansgrohe stand to profit most from the inflow of riders for 2024 – most notably, Primož Roglič from Visma. The German workforce had slipped from fourth on the planet to tenth between 2022 and 2023 and wanted that increase. The inclusion of simply these two riders brings them again on par with Soudal-Quickstep just under the highest two powerhouses.
It is not simply Grand Excursions, both. Including Sam Welsford as a dash substitute for Sam Bennett, who departed for Decathlon-AG2R La Mondiale offers the workforce extra alternatives within the Classics and is a pleasant complement to Jordi Meeus.
The German workforce made good selections this 12 months – even when they did let Cian Uijtdebroeks slip via their fingers – and will nicely shake up the UCI Group Rankings by season’s finish.
Lidl-Trek achieve depth
Lidl-Trek might surpass Soudal-Quickstep and Ineos Grenadiers and be part of Bora-Hansgrohe within the high 4 in 2024 after signing a raft of riders who have been profitable in 2023, together with Andrea Bagioli from Soudal-Quickstep, Tao Geoghegan Hart from Ineos, and Jonathan Milan from Bahrain Victorious.
They’ve additionally picked up some stable riders in Patrick Konrad from Bora-Hansgrohe, Simone Consonni from Cofidis and underrated riders Carlos Verona from Movistar and Sam Oomen from Jumbo-Visma. The addition of Tim Declercq, a key a part of Quickstep’s workforce in each the Spring Classics and Grand Excursions, is one other profit to their hiring spree.
Lidl-Trek relied closely on Mads Pedersen in 2023 however may have many extra choices this season in addition to wanting ahead to seeing how excessive Tour de Suisse winner Mattias Skjelmose can climb. Geoghegan Hart is a tremendous addition to a Grand Tour squad as a complement to Giulio Ciccone, and Milan, extra of a pure sprinter will take the stress off Pedersen, liberating him as much as cherry-pick phases and deal with the Classics.
Astana financial institution on Cavendish
Astana have been within the basement of the WorldTour workforce’s rankings since earlier than the beginning of the present three-year cycle, with their demise relationship again to the lack of Premier Tech as a sponsor earlier than the 2022 season and seeing most of their hitters go away for greener pastures.
Having languished in twenty first in 2022, the workforce picked up Mark Cavendish in hopes of him elevating the workforce by breaking the Tour de France stage win report. An unfortunate crash and the debacle surrounding Miguel Angel Lopez meant the workforce might barely achieve one spot this season.
Enter Quickstep’s deal with Remco Evenepoel’s Tour de France debut. A restructuring of the workforce freed up lead-out skilled Michael Mørkøv, who Astana signed together with Cav’s former lead-out Mark Renshaw as a coach. Astana additional bolstered their rosters with attacking riders like Ide Schelling and Davide Ballerini, and climber Henok Mulubrhan.
If Astana cannot make this 12 months’s lineup work with sufficient firepower to ship them up the rankings no less than 4 spots, then they’re doing one thing very flawed.
Bahrain’s expertise drain
Bahrain Victorious suffered a giant psychological blow with the loss of life of Gino Mäder in the course of the Tour de Suisse, and 2023 not solely deflated their sails however ended with the biking equal of the mind drain, with Mikel Landa departing for Soudal-Quickstep and Milan heading to Lidl-Trek. The 2 riders have been chargeable for 20% of the workforce’s factors final 12 months, and their recruiting efforts have not crammed the opening. Bahrain Victorious signed two neo-pros in Alberto Bruttomesso and Finlay Pickering, and Torstein Træen from Uno-X.
All hope isn’t misplaced, nevertheless. The workforce will rely closely on Pello Bilbao, Matej Mohoric and Damiano Caruso within the coming 12 months and have Giro d’Italia stage winner Santiago Buitrago as a GC hopeful.
Jack Haig can be one other contender if he can shake off the horrible luck suffered final 12 months. They will be pretty protected from relegation after ending 2023 in sixth however might want to save up for the following switch season in the event that they need to problem for the highest of the rankings.
Groupama-FDJ to regroup after Pinot retires
The French workforce misplaced their marquee rider in 2023 when Thibaut Pinot retired and moreover noticed the departure of Michael Storer to Tudor Professional Biking and Bruno Armirail to Decathlon AG2R. Armirail led the Giro d’Italia for 2 phases after a breakaway on stage 14 and landed his best-ever Grand Tour end in sixteenth, whereas Storer received the Tour de l’Ain and has two Vuelta a España phases in his palmares.
The lack of sprinter Arnaud Démare in a mid-season switch to Arkéa-Samsic was one other main blow to the workforce, they usually did not handle to recruit any replacements on the identical stage. Sven Erik Bystrøm from Intermarché and Rémy Rochas from Cofidis are their high signings. That can go away quite a lot of stress on David Gaudu, Valentin Madouas and Stefan Küng.
The workforce can look to the long run, nevertheless, with Lenny Martinez displaying nice promise on the Vuelta a España with two days within the chief’s jersey and a win within the CIC-Mont Ventoux.
Groupama-FDJ ended 2023 in seventh, however except they will squeeze out some stellar rides they will be preventing to remain within the high 10 groups.
Intermarché on a slippery slope
Intermarché made a giant splash in 2022 with their fifth place within the UCI Group Rankings and high-profile outcomes from Biniam Girmay, who made historical past as the primary Black African winner of Gent-Wevelgem after which a stage of the Giro d’Italia. However since then, the Belgian workforce have did not repeat that success, partly as a result of departure of Alexander Kristoff to Uno-X. They fell to 14th in 2023 however the drop would have been a lot steeper had it not been for Rui Costa, who scored probably the most factors for the workforce. Nonetheless, the previous world champion left for EF Schooling-EasyPost for 2024.
Intermarché-Wanty haven’t changed Costa, bringing in three riders from the event workforce together with Gijs Van Hoecke from the defunct Human Powered Well being squad, Kevin Colleoni from Jayco-AlUla and Vito Braet from Flanders-Baloise. The workforce ended 2023 in 14th and should battle for each level to keep away from falling into the dreaded relegation zone.
Group dsm-firmenich-PostNL want extra capital
The all lowercase shift in 2023 did dsm-firmenich no favours and whereas they’re bringing in additional capital they want extra large names. Three of their 4 high scorers have left in 2024: Sam Welsford to Bora-Hansgrohe, Alberto Dainese to Tudor and the promising GC rider Andreas Leknessund to Uno-X. Nonetheless, the acquisition of sprinter Fabio Jakobsen from Quickstep and Warren Barguil from Arkéa ought to hold the workforce on a stage footing if all goes nicely.
Already seventeenth within the UCI rankings, the workforce will probably be relying closely on Jakobsen to win Grand Tour phases and hold their WorldTour hopes afloat, which is a dangerous technique. Even with Jakobsen, the relative point-earning energy of their 2024 roster is nicely under the remainder of the WorldTour groups. They ended the 2023 season in seventeenth and stand to get pushed down as Lotto Dstny and Israel-Premier Tech appear destined for WorldTour promotion in 2026.
Different notable modifications
Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale ought to profit from the hiring of Victor Lafay after ending 18th within the 2023 workforce rankings.
Israel-Premier Tech look set to climb greater after signing Pascal Ackermann and Ethan Vernon, Lotto Dstny want a backup plan for Arnaud De Lie after shedding Caleb Ewan to Jayco.
EF Schooling-EasyPost and Jayco-AlUla, after a worrying finish to the final relegation cycle, are wanting way more stable within the mid-pack and seem set to proceed on this path with extra good signings like Rui Costa to EF and Ewan and Max Walscheid to Jayco.
Soudal-Quickstep and Ineos Grenadiers are seeing their stars wane as the previous shed most of their Classics emphasis to help Evenepoel’s Tour de France ambitions and the latter battle to rekindle their former glory. Count on them to lose a few locations this 12 months except Evenepoel can reach his quest for yellow.
Fictitious 2024 workforce standings
| Group | 2024 factors | 2023 factors* | 2024 rank | 2023 rank | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UAE Group Emirates | 32166 | 30963.18 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Group Visma Lease a Bike | 27339 | 29654.45 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Lidl-Trek | 20193 | 16054.45 | 3 | 5 | 2 |
| BORA-hansgrohe | 19282 | 13325.13 | 4 | 10 | 6 |
| Soudal Fast-Step | 16735 | 18702.85 | 5 | 3 | -2 |
| INEOS Grenadiers | 15405 | 17760.93 | 6 | 4 | -2 |
| Alpecin-Deceuninck | 15040 | 14519.25 | 7 | 8 | 1 |
| Lotto Dstny | 13880 | 14112.83 | 8 | 9 | 1 |
| EF Schooling-EasyPost | 13842 | 11818.69 | 9 | 11 | 2 |
| Group Jayco-AlUla | 13458 | 10737.65 | 10 | 13 | 3 |
| Bahrain Victorious | 12888 | 15787.81 | 11 | 6 | -5 |
| Groupama-FDJ | 12248 | 14834.51 | 12 | 7 | -5 |
| Movistar Group | 11597 | 10989.53 | 13 | 12 | -1 |
| Israel-Premier Tech | 11218 | 10022 | 14 | 16 | 2 |
| Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale Group | 10577 | 9096 | 15 | 18 | 3 |
| Astana Qazaqstan Group | 10037 | 7044.44 | 16 | 20 | 4 |
| Cofidis | 9971 | 10437.41 | 17 | 15 | -2 |
| Intermarché-Wanty | 9168 | 10492.28 | 18 | 14 | -4 |
| ARKEA-B&B HOTELS | 8589 | 7229 | 19 | 19 | 0 |
| Uno-X Mobility | 7912 | 6569 | 20 | 21 | 1 |
| Group dsm-firmenich PostNL | 7802 | 9102.2 | 21 | 17 | -4 |
| TotalEnergies | 5542 | 5765 | 22 | 22 | 0 |
* 2023 UCI Group Rating factors embrace subtractions for penalties incurred in the course of the season. The 2024 totals don’t embrace these.
High riders up for grabs
| Rider | 2023 Group | 2023 Factors |
|---|---|---|
| Pier-André Côté | Human Powered Well being | 379 |
| Amanuel Gebreigzabhier | Lidl-Trek | 307 |
| Lukas Pöstlberger | Group Jayco-AlUla | 230 |
| Edvald Boasson-Hagen | TotalEnergies | 221 |
| Domenico Pozzovivo | Israel-Premier Tech | 219 |
| James Oram | Bolton Equities Black Spoke | 215 |
| Nicolas Dalla Valle | Corratec Selle Italia | 186 |
| Eiking, Odd Christian | EF Schooling-EasyPost | 177 |
| Chrétien, Charles-Etienne | Human Powered Well being | 164 |
| Karel Vacek | Corratec Selle Italia | 133 |
| Alan Banaszek | Human Powered Well being | 125 |
| Jens Reynders | Israel-Premier Tech | 115 |
| Merhawi Kudus | EF Schooling-EasyPost | 112 |
| Lauk, Karl Patrick | Bingoal WB | 110 |
| James Fouche | Bolton Equities Black Spoke | 110 |
| Scott McGill | Human Powered Well being | 107 |
| Ryan Christensen | Bolton Equities Black Spoke | 96 |
| Omer Goldstein | Israel-Premier Tech | 92 |
| Alexander Konychev | Corratec Selle Italia | 91 |
| Asbjørn Hellemose | Lidl-Trek | 90 |
| Adam De Vos | Human Powered Well being | 75 |
| Robert Stannard | Alpecin-Deceuninck | 72 |
